The International Crisis Group, an independent, non-profit, non-governmental organisation committed to preventing and resolving deadly conflict, has warned that prevailing indices suggest Nigeria is heading towards a very volatile and vicious electoral contest.
Giving the warning in an executive summary and recommendation titled: “Nigeria’s Dangerous 2015 Elections: Limiting the Violence”, the Crisis Group whose board is co-chaired by Lord (Mark) Malloch-Brown, former UN Deputy Secretary-General and Administrator of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), and Ghassan Salamé, Dean, Paris School of International Affairs, Sciences Po, projected that next year’s general elections would be more contentious than usual.
This warning is coming two days after the Speaker of the House of Representatives Aminu Tambuwal and his supporters in the House, were denied entry into the National Assembly by the police, and on a day a major political party, All Progressives Congress(APC), alleged that operatives of the Department of State Security (DSS) and OP-MESA invaded the party’s data centre in Lagos, destroying its computers and arrested 28 people including 25 APC data agents and three security guards.
The Crisis Group attributed its warning to the, “Tensions within and between the two major political parties, competing claims to the presidency between northern and Niger Delta politicians and along religious lines, the grim radical Islamist Boko Haram insurgency and increasing communal violence in several northern states, along with inadequate preparations by the electoral commission and apparent bias by security agencies.”
The group, in the report which was released at the weekend, further warned, “If this violent trend continues, and particularly if the vote is close, marred or followed by widespread violence, it would deepen Nigeria’s already grave security and governance crises.” It said that the government, its agencies and all other national figures must work urgently to ensure that the vote is not conducted in an explosive situation as this could further destabilise the country.
Making a bleak forecast for next year’s elections in a way that suggests that head or tail, the nation is headed for an ominous path, the Crisis Group said: “Factional feuds within both parties could degenerate into violence during their national and state primaries. Competing claims to the presidency, between northern leaders and their Niger Delta counterparts, could also result in violence in either or both regions, particularly after the polls.
As in 2011, clashes could erupt in some northern states if the APC, whose frontrunners are all northerners, loses the polls; there is similarly a high risk of violence if the PDP loses the presidency, particularly in the Niger Delta, home region of the party’s candidate, President Goodluck Jonathan.
“The Boko Haram insurgency and the state of emergency in Borno, Adamawa and Yobe could prevent voting in parts of those north-eastern states. If this occurs, the opposition APC, which has large following in those (and other northern) states, could lose a significant number of votes, reject the presidential polls’ outcome and question the elected government’s legitimacy.
“An election not held in all states may also fall short of the constitutional requirements for electing a president, namely that the winner score 25 per cent of the votes in two-thirds of the 36 states, thereby raising serious legal disputes. Equally worrying are the increasing availability of firearms, the rise in communal violence across several northern states since 2013 and deepening criminality in the Niger Delta.”
The report also noted that deficiencies in electoral preparations were compounding the risks of violence as proposed amendments to the 2010 Electoral Act, including provisions for establishment of an election offences tribunal, intended to prevent or punish electoral offences, remained stuck in the National Assembly, while there was no certainty they would be passed in time to have meaningful impact on the polls.
“Repeated assurances by the chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Professor Attahiru Jega, that the polls will be an improvement on the past, are not entirely supported by realities on ground. There are growing fears that INEC may not be able to produce an updated and credible voter register before the polls. The commission’s decision to create 30,000 new polling units, mostly in northern states, was widely rejected by southern leaders and groups who feared Jega, a northerner, was handing his home region an electoral advantage. INEC’s decision to put the new polling units on hold has not entirely dispelled southern misgivings. Amid such lack of confidence, an election conducted with an incomplete voter register will certainly be disputed.
“Actions by the police and other security services, all controlled by the federal government, could also aggravate tensions around the polls and undermine the credibility of their outcomes.
The conduct of some senior police officers, notably in Rivers state, has raised fears that the agency could be manipulated to serve the PDP’s interests. Similarly, some actions and pronouncements by the Department of State Security (DSS) – Nigeria’s main domestic intelligence agency – have raised concerns about institutional bias. If these agencies act or are perceived to act in a partisan manner, they could undermine free and fair polls and heighten the risks of violence, particularly after the vote,” it further warned.
Even though next year’s elections are just about three months away, the report suggested a number of measures that could be taken by government, institutions, political office holders, political gladiators and the civil society to avert this dangerous scenario.
It said: “With only three months before elections, the government cannot engage in long-term structural efforts to improve the quality of the vote, but it can and must be encouraged to urgently take several steps to limit the risk of widespread violence.
“These include increasing efforts to contain the Boko Haram insurgency, paying special attention to the police to improve the security environment, reinforcing the capacities of the INEC to restore confidence in the electoral process, and along with all politicians, avoid playing the religious card and reducing tensions within and between the parties.
“The government – President Goodluck Jonathan, the federal legislature, INEC and security agencies – must bear the greatest responsibility for implementing these measures, but other national and political figures, including civil society, as well as international partners must also rally to stop the slide.”
