•President Bola Tinubu
A happy new year wish will be in order though it is certainly obvious this will be a thoroughly unhappy and extremely troubling year for a majority of Nigerians. From the 1960s, and especially since the return of democracy [read rule by civilians], governments at all levels, have steadily proved themselves to be enemies of the people.
At least since 1999, the expectation has been that we will experience government of the people, by the people and for the people. No. That has remained an illusion. What we have had has been government of the rulers, by the rulers and for the rulers. The government as a force for good does not apply in our clime. The people have been left behind and out. We are now 24 years into the so-called fourth republic and the confrontation which could turn violent between the people and their rulers may just not be far away. If and when it happens, Nigeria as we have known it since after the Civil War in January 1970 will be in play. The potential outcome of the war on oppressors by the oppressed is better imagined than experienced. There will be carnage because it will be fight-to-finish. There will be casualties because there will not be any hiding place.
Nigeria is unravelling and 2024 could be a defining year for the future of the country. Since the patchwork that birthed Nigeria in October 1960, and more so since January 1970, our rulers whether military politicians or their civilian counterparts have mouthed the slogan of Nigeria being a united and indissoluble country. But for their selfishness, the sloganeering about an indissoluble country could have been commendable. However, we know of a truth that our rulers’ insistence on one Nigeria is for their own benefits- access to the commonwealth and the looting of same. It has been a reign of terror, lies and deceit. It has been a succession of promises of delivery without delivery of promises. For many Nigerians it has been decades of hopes dashed and unbroken nightmares. So the long suffering Nigerians may finally get to the barricades this year.
The signs have been there for sometime. In comparison with 2023 and 2024 which is barely 24 hours old, 2020 ranked among the good old years for Nigerians. But in October of that year a revolution led by frustrated and angry young Nigerians was violently put down by the All Progressives Congress [APC] regime led by the affliction and scourge called a President, Major-General Muhammadu Buhari. Lekki Toll Plaza in Lagos remains our own Tiannamen Square in China and a symbol of repression.
Before the accession to power in 2023 by his party man, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Buhari was widely regarded as the worst President the country has ever had. But barely eight months into Tinubu’s tenure, some Nigerians including yours sincerely are wandering if we had been premature in labelling Buhari as the worst President in recent memory. If governance is about improving the lot of the majority of people, then Tinubu’s regime which is just eight months old could end up beating Buhari’s record. I was sadly right when in 2015 I said in this space that Buhari will fail and will leave Nigeria worse than he met it. But now I pray not to be right if I say that Tinubu will not move the needle in four or eight years as the case may be.
However, the start of President Tinubu which featured the precipitate removal of the so-called petrol subsidy and the ‘floating’ of the naira portends dangers ahead. In months Tinubu has made Nigerians poorer, more despondent and hopeless than Buhari could manage to achieve in eight years.
Everything that earned Buhari a place in Nigeria’s Hall of Infamy has been aggravated under Tinubu- nepotism, vendetta, corruption, naira devaluation, inflation, hopelessness, unemployment, de-industrialisation, insecurity, etcetera. This regime’s propagandists have repeatedly promised that we will turn the corner this year. I agree with them but there is a point of departure- they argue that we will turn into a good place that will lead us to Eldorado but I am sure that they are corralling us down a slippery slope.
For a start, some pro-Tinubu capitalism-driven international financial institutions like the World Bank have said more Nigerians will slip below the poverty line this year. It will be a steady flow down and by the minute. And we know that there’s an established relationship between poverty, unemployment and crime. Heightened poverty and increased joblessness will lead to desperation and more crimes this year. Last week, there was a viral video of a young man who said that unless the country’s economic situation improved in a matter of months, people like him will have no choice than to ‘carry guns’. The guns are not for self-preservation. They will be to dispossess the other citizen of whatever s/he has. The tragic irony is that the persons who have made Nigeria a living hell will be largely out of the reach of the emergent angry gunmen. They will be ensconced in their fortified villas and armour-plated sport utility vehicles [SUVs] which were bought with our money and at our expense.
Across board this year- local, state and federal governments – more than 2,000 SUVs may have been provisioned for purchase for the use of our rulers. The figure of 2,000 is conservative given that we have 469 national assembly members, 37 state governors including the imperial Abuja minister, 36 houses of assembly with an average of 25 lawmakers each, a plethora of ministries, departments and Agencies as well as statutory commissions and 774 council chairmen, among other parasites who live off the various governments. The costs of the SUVs range from N70 million to N700 million per unit depending on specifications and sundry extras. In 2024 alone the tiers of government in our impoverished and foreign loans-dependent country could be spending more than N300 billion on SUVs alone for the use of less than 0.0001% of the population. If that is not insanity I wonder what is. What can be a clearer pointer that governments are our enemy?
Last year the naira was devalued by about 55%. By year’s end the Naira was trading at N1,043 in the official market and at N1,210 on the street. Indeed, Bloomberg, an American-based media organisation said that the naira was among the three worst performing currencies in the world. It only bested Lebanese Pound and Argentine Peso in a study of 151 currencies. The usually respected media outfit predicted that it will get worse this year unless the level of our foreign reserves improved to moderate overdue short-term overseas obligations on our already encumbered reserves. The naira may also have a breather if the APC regime succeeds in pulling off two other near impossible feats- lure foreign investors to Nigeria and ramp up crude oil production while praying that OPEC will not cut our crude oil export quota.
What further evidence do we need to recognise that government is the enemy of Nigerians when distributable power has remained stagnant for more than a decade. When APC came into office at the federal level in 2015, electricity generation was at 4,360 megawatts. In December of 2023, that’s last month to be precise, distributable power generation stood at 4,212 MW. Only government as an enemy will visit this callousness on the people. Energy drives the economy but our industry runs on diesel-powered generators. This partly explains why some transnational corporations are cutting and running. The ship is sinking.
The country is also buffeted by insecurity. Except for the scourge of Boko Haram Islamist terrorism which appears to be abating, every other security challenges appear to be intensifying. On Christmas eve more than 150 indigenes were slaughtered in two local government areas of Plateau State. This used to be the handiwork of herder-terrorists but this time the government put the blame on ‘bandits’. Whether the latest massacre was carried out by Ak-47-wielding herders or by bandits with lethal weapons, the reality is portraying the picture of cluelessness and helplessness of our rulers. The reign of terror will continue in 2024. Government becomes the enemy when it fails, as has been the lot of Nigerians for years, to meet a cardinal obligation of securing citizens.
The privations Nigerians will have to contend with this year will not be made any easier by some developments in the external environment especially the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. Nigeria will not be immune from the food crisis these wars will trigger nor the looming supply chain disruptions. The potentials of the wars to impact crude oil supply and price are ever present. Nigerians will not need the prayer of ‘may your road be rough this year’ as was attributed to the educationist and social crusader, the late Tai Solarin. The roughness of the road in 2024 has been assured and insured by our rulers at all levels.
