PRESIDENT Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is set to defeat All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate, Major-General Muhammadu Buhari, with at least a margin of 17 per cent at the presidential election scheduled to hold on Saturday.
Contrary to earlier projections that Buhari’s party, APC, would capture, wholesale, the votes of the South-West geopolitical zone, the reality on ground on Tuesday, as revealed by an independent survey, is that President Jonathan had unlocked the pathway to even out votes in the region.
The survey was conducted by Chike Uchime of Forward Magazine, a research and publishing company since 1995, and Daniel Dickson-Okezie of Zevland Ventures Limited, a leading research and security consultancy firm.
Using 24,000 sample size across 33 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) to decide, through an opinion survey, who will win the presidential election, the outcome of the research exercise was based on three critical factors.
The factors were the respondents’ views on the achievements or performance of the president from 2011 to date and to see how this can affect his chances in the coming election; the correlation between the outcome of the 2011 presidential election and the likely outcome of the 2015 presidential election; and a detailed study of the various dynamics that had taken place since 2011 and the likely impact on the outcome of the 2015 presidential election.
According to the survey, “when asked which of the two main political parties they preferred, 65 per cent of the respondents opted for PDP, while 31 per cent favoured the APC, one per cent went for other parties, while the remaining two per cent went for none of the parties.
“Again, the respondents, when asked, also rated President Jonathan’s performance in 10 critical areas – security, agriculture, power, education, transportation, aviation, press freedom, fight against corruption, human rights, job creation and women empowerment above.
“When the respondents were asked if they would vote for Jonathan based on their responses to the previous questions, 62.2 per cent answered in the affirmative, and 29.7 per cent in the negative, while 4.1 per cent were undecided.
“On the question whether Major-General Buhari is considered more capable in addressing the critical issues in the areas listed, 30.7 per cent answered in the affirmative, while 65 per cent answered in the negative. Another 4.3 per cent of the respondents were undecided.
“From the foregoing, it was becoming visible the likely direction of their votes.”
The survey report highlighted the dynamics that had taken place since the 2011 election and the likely impact on the outcome of the 2015 presidential election.
According to the report, “issues addressed include: effect of intra-party conflicts; effect of mass defection/cross-carpeting; effect of endorsements by ethno-religious groups, socio-cultural groups, paramount rulers and others; and inter-religious/ethnic conflicts since 2011
“Each of these issues will either have a positive or negative impact on the candidates. For example, the mass defection of some PDP governors and party stalwarts to the APC may affect the PDP negatively in some states.
“However, this likely setback may be cancelled out by some high-profile defection into PDP such as that of Governor Olusegun Mimiko of Ondo State and those of former Governors Peter Obi, Attahiru Bafarawa, Ibrahim Shekarau, etc.
“Also, the effect of the conflict between the Fulani cattle rearers and indigenous farmers mainly in the North Central states and Taraba State in North East may likely cost Buhari, who is a Fulani, some important votes in the areas concerned.
“Equally, the increase in clashes between the Hausa Fulani and the people of Southern Kaduna might likely tilt a win in favour of Jonathan.
“The volume of endorsements by traditional rulers and ethnic nationality groups among others in the South East, South-South and South West has also enhanced President Jonathan’s chances.
“Another critical factor examined which may work in favour of the president is the recent and aggressive deployment of the social media network, which now ensures a wider reach and delivery of its programmes to the people.
“Hitherto, the APC was in control and more effective in the use of the social media.
“In conclusion, based on our findings as enumerated above, Dr Jonathan stands an excellent chance of winning the 2015 presidential election by at least a 17 per cent margin, over his closest rival,” the report noted.
According to the coordinator of the survey, the report did away with the dubious format of allocating states to a candidate based on some illusory expectations.
US poll predicts Jonathan’s slim win
A combined survey by an international pollster based in the United States has predicted a slim win for President Goodluck Jonathan on Saturday.
Williams and Associates, a Boston (MA) based research and consulting firm, has finally released the results of four national surveys conducted in Nigeria between March 4 and March 20, showing a highly-probable Jonathan’s re-election.
A United Kingdom pollster, Kevin, Charlyn and Kimberly Associates, had also projected Jonathan’s re-election with a 13 per cent probable margin.
The USA polling, however, gave the president a six per cent probable victory margin over his closest challenger, former head of state, Major-General Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC).
The polling was reportedly conducted in all the 36 states of the federation and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, with 5,000 respondents used for sampling.
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When compiled together the results of the four surveys, conducted through in-person and face-to-face interviews among Nigerians of voting age in all the states and Abuja, showed Jonathan maintain a slim lead over Buhari.
Among the questions asked respondents was: “Here is a list of candidates for president and vice president currently on the ballot for the upcoming elections. If the elections were held today, for which one of these teams would you vote?”
The Jonathan/Sambo ticket got 50 per cent, while the Buhari/Osinbajo ticket got 44 per cent. Others/Don’t know was three per cent, while Undecided was also 3 per cent.
The question on whether the president performed his duties well enough to deserve re-election got him a 49 per cent “Yes” and 46 per cent “No”.
The results suggested a close race between the duo, with Jonathan expected to have a razor-edge win to be re-elected to a second term.
When asked what issue would be most important to them when determining their votes for president, “Jobs and Unemployment and Economic Growth” topped the wish-list with 44 per cent.
Jonathan leading by 7.01% —Survey
A poll result released on Tuesday by the Nigeria Polls and Survey group has put the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential candidate, Dr Goodluck Jonathan, ahead of his closest rival, Major-General Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) with a slight margin of 7.01 per cent.
The nationwide poll was conducted by reputable group of social scientists.
According to a release signed by the coordinator of the group, Dr Ayo Alao, results from the poll were based on a five-item questionnaire administered on a total of 10,294 registered voters, who were selected from the 36 states of the federation and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).
Of these, 6,592 were males and 3,702 females.
It added that the questionnaire sought to elicit information on respondent’s knowledge of political parties, possession of PVCs, awareness of the election date, willingness to vote during the election and the respondents’ preferred presidential candidate.
The Nigeria Polls and Survey group, in the release, said a total of 5,508 respondents indicated their intention to vote for the presidential candidate of PDP), compared with a total of 4,786 respondents who favoured the presidential candidate of APC.
The data analysis showed that the PDP candidate, Jonathan, may likely have a better showing in the presidential election in South-South, South-East, and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), while Buhari of APC may poll more votes in North-West and North-East.
South-West and North-Central, according to the survey, remained largely the battle ground that may swing victory either way.
The steps taken by President Jonathan to ensure the implementation of the recommendation of the national conference also look favourable for his candidacy.
The analysis also indicated that primary primordial factors like ethnic affiliations, religion and social class may be the influencing factors in the election.
(Nigerian Tribune)
