By Kayode Adebiyi
In a matter of two weeks, Syrian rebel forces took Damascus and displaced President Bashar al-Assad in what came as a surprise to many watchers of political developments in the region.
The rebels swept through Syria’s largest city, Aleppo, then Hama and Homs. In a sleek and seamless move, they entered Syria’s capital, Damascus, days later, taking the city without a fight as government forces fled.
The Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group, led by Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, was triumphantly welcomed by Syrians, who have endured a civil war since 2011 when the ‘Arab Spring’ blew across North Africa and the Middle East.
Syria’s civil war has left a trail of devastation, claiming hundreds of thousands of lives, displacing millions, and reducing much of the nation to rubble. The consequence is unprecedented poverty and unemployment.
Bashar al-Assad, the country’s decades long leader has been a central figure in the conflict, accused of widespread human rights abuses and war crimes.
Now that the HTS has ousted him and put an end to a dynasty rule that spans over 60 years. The question is: Can Syria chart a course towards peace after al-Assad ouster?
According to the New York Times, the HTS group had early links to the Islamic State or ISIS, and then to Al Qaeda.
“But by mid-2016, the Nusra Front was trying to shed its extremist roots, banding together with several other factions to establish Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
“The United States and other Western countries still consider it a terrorist group,” it said.
For instance, the HTS was proscribed as a terror organisation in the UK after being added as an alias of al-Qaeda in 2017.
What it means is that, despite the welcomed fall of Assad, the UK cannot have any communication with the group until its status is reviewed.
“We have all seen in other parts of history where we think there is a turning point – it turns out not necessarily to be the better future that we hope for,” British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said.
Some conflict resolution experts have warned that Syria’s challenges go beyond the presence or absence of Bashar al-Assad.
They say the war had entrenched deep-seated divisions among ethnic, religious, and political factions, making the road to reconciliation a daunting task.
For instance, the Alawite minority, to which Assad belongs, has historically aligned with his regime, fearing persecution in a post-Assad era.
Meanwhile, Sunni-majority opposition groups and Kurdish factions have their visions for Syria’s future, often clashing over governance, territory, and rights.
Also, the war has given rise to extremist groups, notably the Islamic State (ISIS). Rebel groups, including the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and others, initially sought democratic reforms but have faced allegations of splintering and extremist affiliations.
Some factions within the broader opposition were reportedly linked to ISIS and other jihadist groups, though many denied direct affiliation.
Experts warn that these linkages, whether direct or opportunistic, have fueled mistrust and complicated efforts for a unified opposition.
Although many believe that the HTS was able to oust Assad so quickly because it was able to rally other groups, experts say examples of such temporary alliances in previous situations have proved its unreliability.
“The Syrian National Army is being funded and supported by Turkey-controlled territories in the north of Idlib on the border with Turkey.
“The Free Syrian Army, mainly backed by the US, originally operated out of a base on the Syrian-Jordanian border.
“The Syrian Democratic Forces represent Kurdish interest in Syria and work hand-in-hand with their counterparts in Iraq with support from the US.
“How does the new government bring all these interests together to achieve a common goal?” an analyst asked the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN).
Nesrin Alrefaai, a Visiting Fellow at the London School of Economics, said Syria’s war is not just a domestic conflict; it is a proxy battleground for global powers.
It is open knowledge that Russia and Iran had provided steadfast support to al-Assad, ensuring his survival against domestic and international opposition.
Meanwhile, Turkey, U.S. and Gulf nations backed various opposition groups, often with diverging goals.
Now that Assad has been ousted, experts say these actors are likely to continue vying for influence, potentially perpetuating instability.
Analysing media content and previous antecedents prove that this concern is not baseless.
There have been cautionary tales about post-conflict transitions. The ousting of Saddam Hussein of Iraq and Muammar Gaddafi of Libya led to power vacuums, prolonged chaos and insurgencies that spilled over to regions.
Experst, therefore, warn that without a clear plan for governance and reconciliation by the new regime Syria could face similar dangers.
The challenge lies in creating a transitional framework that accommodates all factions, protects minorities, and rebuilds trust among communities, experts say.
Therefore, observers of developments in the diplomatic circle say for Syria to achieve peace, several critical steps have to be taken.
They include a transitional government that will represent all ethnic and religious groups to prevent marginalisation and further conflict.
The Initiatives of Change International said programmes aimed at rebuilding trust and addressing wartime grievances are essential.
“This could include truth commissions, amnesty for certain fighters, and reparations for victims.
“Rebuilding Syria’s devastated infrastructure and economy also requires substantial international aid. Global powers must prioritise humanitarian assistance over geopolitical rivalries.
Other sources also say addressing the root causes of extremism – poverty, disenfranchisement, and ideological indoctrination – is crucial to preventing the resurgence of groups such as ISIS.
For now, the HTS is carrying a weighty allegation of previous association with ISIS, while some other opposition factions were accused of collaborating with terrorist groups in the early stages of the war.
Indeed, ISIS’s brutal tactics and ambition to establish a caliphate alienated most rebel groups.
However, analysts say opportunistic alliances occasionally occurred in regions where mutual enemies, like the Assad regime, were targeted. Over time, mainstream opposition groups distanced themselves from ISIS, focusing on their vision of a democratic Syria.
The consensus is that the ousting of Bashar al-Assad could present a rare opportunity for a fresh start.
Yet, without a comprehensive strategy to address Syria’s deeply rooted issues, peace may remain elusive.
The international community, regional stakeholders and Syrians should prioritise unity and collaboration over division so that Syria can transit from a war-torn nation to a symbol of resilience and recovery. (NANFeatures)
