ADC coalition vs. APC: Fresh faces or familiar failures? By Farooq Kperogi

The Peoples Democratic Party, which is supposed to be the main opposition party, is in the firm grip of Federal Capital Territory Minister Nyesom Wike. He finances and controls it and would never allow it to pose a threat to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s reelection in 2027.

The Labor Party is in disarray and enervated by what seems like irresolvable internal fissures. The previously inconsequential Social Democratic Party, which burst forth from obscurity to national prominence after former Kaduna State governor Nasir El-Rufai defected to it and encouraged opposition politicians to consider it a new political home, suddenly became inhospitable for fleeing APC political refugees.

In a widely shared April 26, 2025, column titled “In 2027, Tinubu Won’t Win; The Opposition Will Lose,” I noted that, “Northern opposition politicians like Nasir El-Rufai also don’t seem to realize that the Social Democratic Party (SDP) they have embraced as the vehicle to displace Tinubu is, in fact, Tinubu’s spare car.” Despite initial skepticism, they eventually realized this truth.

So, there is no question that the opposition had no credible platform from which to launch a challenge to Tinubu. Until now, it had seemed as though Tinubu’s path to victory in 2027 was unchallenged. An Atiku-Obi or Obi-Atiku ticket, if managed adroitly, would be a fierce, forceful political tsunami.

While the convergence of opposition politicians in the ADC has enlivened the playing field, strengthened the vibrancy of our electoral politics, and forestalled what had appeared like an inexorable march to a de facto one-party democracy, several people have questioned the quality and antecedents of the people who constitute the core of the group.

However pollyannaish you might choose to be, it is difficult not to be amused that Abubakar Malami, Buhari’s minister of justice who was notorious for unrestrained Igbophobia as an official policy, who rechristened “Abacha loot” as “Abacha asset,” and who was mired in unspeakably stratospheric corruption and abuse of power only a few years ago, is one of the arrowheads of the opposition.

How about Nasir El-Rufai who is the mascot for toxic, unabashed Christophobia in northern Nigeria, a purveyor of noxious ethno-regional intolerance, and a violent man who countenanced the mass slaughter of Shia Muslims and on whose watch opponents disappeared without a trace? Does his opportunistic opposition to Tinubu, legitimate as it is, erase his troubling past, which he is likely to repeat in the future should he have another chance?

Rotimi Amaechi is a leaky-mouthed buffoon who assaulted the sensibilities of Nigerians as Buhari’s minister of transportation for eight years, and Babachir Lawal of grass-cutting corruption infamy is another mover of the ADC. But somehow, we are supposed to believe that these are revolutionary or born-again politicians who will be different from the current cast of characters who are making living hell for the majority of Nigerians.

There is, however, a fair counter-argument. While the ADC contains people whose immediate past history evokes horror and revulsion, it also has people who are reasonably smart and forward-thinking. Since a political party isn’t an association of saints or of people who are unblemished by moral or ethical stains, it’s unfair to dismiss a political party because of one’s disapproval of the past actions of a few people in it.

In any case, the APC, which is the alternative, isn’t different. For every previously heartless and corrupt ADC politician, there are countless more APC politicians who are worse. So, it is defensible to dismiss the moral judgment on some of the people who are marketing the ADC.

I am politically unaffiliated and have always been. I am not saying this to assert any moral superiority. A politically unaffiliated person isn’t superior to a politically partisan person. It’s just a choice.

Nonetheless, from my unaffiliated political lenses, the emergence of ADC is great only to the extent that it has introduced some intra-class competition within Nigerian ruling class circles. The APC can no longer take for granted its dominance of the Nigerian political space. Virile, transaction-oriented opposition will cause it to sit up and work to earn the trust of the people instead of taking them for granted, as it has for the past two years.

Beyond that, though, the APC and the ADC are mere platforms for the same ruling class that has dominated Nigeria since 1999. From 1999 until 2015, they congregated in the PDP. Those who couldn’t get a spot in the PDP became the “opposition.” From 2015 until now, the same ruling elites moved to the APC. In fact, as I pointed out in previous columns, up to 90 percent (perhaps more) of former PDP national chairmen are now in the APC.

For instance, Abdullahi Adamu, the APC chairman before Abdullahi Ganduje, is a previous two-term PDP governor of Nasarawa State who also served as Secretary of PDP’s Board of Trustees.

Should the ADC succeed in displacing the APC in 2027, most of the people in the APC today would be in the ADC. Perpetual “crosstitution” (as South Africans call defection, which is a delicious blend of “crossing” and “prostitution” implying that elected officials who switch political parties are political prostitutes) is the only permanent thing in Nigerian politics.

“Opposition politicians,” for the most part, are usually no more than politicians who are excluded from the ruling party for any number of reasons, none of which has the remotest association with principles or ideology.

To take the ADC seriously, I need evidence of clear policy distinctions from the APC. Specifically, I will evaluate the ADC on three critical issues.

First, what is the position of the party on petrol subsidies? This is important because many of the major players in the ADC coalition have articulated positions on petrol subsidies that are indistinguishable from what Tinubu’s APC is implementing now. I have written countless columns on this and won’t bore the reader by repeating it.

What I do know, however, is that energy independence is a core constituent of the ingredients that are necessary for national growth and development. Access to affordable fuel is the engine of industrialisation. All developed countries or countries on the path to development have some form of energy subsidies for their citizens and businesses.

If the ADC wants to continue with the policy of subsidy removal, which has wreaked havoc on the economy and hollowed out the middle class, I will leave it to Nigerians to decide whether jumping from the torment of the frying pan to the incineration of the fire makes a difference.

The second policy I will judge the ADC on is its position on the devaluation of the naira. All the major movers of the ADC have expressed positions on the devaluation of the naira that are consistent with what Tinubu is doing now. Well, the English say the proof of the pudding is in the eating. That is, the true worth of something can only be determined by actual practice or outcomes, rather than by its appearance or theoretical claims.

We have all seen what happens to people and the economy when you gut subsidies and devalue the national currency. Of course, previous columns of mine have predicted exactly what is happening now. Voters will do well to insist that ADC says exactly what its policy is regarding currency devaluation.

Finally, what would the ADC do differently with regard to electricity generation and distribution? Will it uphold the current economic apartheid in electricity consumption, as I characterized it in my May 18, 2024, column?

Many other issues exist, of course, but in my estimation, these are foundational questions that will determine if the APC and the ADC are truly different parties or if they are merely different containers of the same hell.

Ultimately, if voters are merely seduced by the allure of different faces in government without demanding substantively different policies, they will inevitably perpetuate the familiar cycle of failures that makes each subsequent president appear worse than their predecessors.

Without genuine policy change, Nigerians might soon find themselves missing Tinubu after 2027, just as many now unexpectedly find themselves missing Muhammadu Buhari, once regarded as Nigeria’s worst president.