In 2021, there will be up to 26 elections in Africa, with at least 13 of them deciding the offices of president or prime minister. In some countries, such as Cape Verde, Djibouti, and São Tomé, the contests will barely register as national incidents. In Benin, Chad and Congo Brazzaville, the outcome will be pre-determined, barring a political miracle. Libya’s will be a transitional election, which should attract international attention. In the Gambia, incumbent president, Adama Barrow, who reneged on an agreement with a coalition of parties to serve three years of his five-year term, will seek re-election against the coalition of politicians to whom he broke his word. Zambia’s presidential election, scheduled to take place in August 2020, will occur against the backdrop of an unsustainable debt overhang that has already triggered a sovereign default and is likely to leave whoever is declared winner with a poor hand to deal thereafter.
In the Horn of Africa and the Nile Basin, 2021 will witness an unusual convergence of suffrage and suffering, with elections scheduled in Djibouti, Ethiopia, Somalia, Somali-Land, and Uganda, amidst a tidal wave of rising authoritarianism, fragmentation and expanding footprint of Islamist violence. In a region where Egypt and Kenya have historically been regarded as anchors, Ethiopia and Uganda are likely to dictate the agenda….
