By Niran Adedokun
The talk about things first getting worse before they get better is perhaps the most common place talk in Nigeria today. And understandably so. Things have gone from bad to worse in the past couple of months such that the Muhammadu Buhari administration really needs that line to calm agitating nerves and its unquestioning supporters need it to stifle contrary opinion.
One cannot begrudge the government for trying to sell hope to the people but I have a little problem with the unqualified application of that saying. When a government takes power and lays a plan before its people on how a bad situation was going to get better, it is understandable when this plan takes the people through a tough curve, it would make sense to preach the gospel of things getting worse before they get better to people. Since there is a definite plan to which everyone subscribes to and whose destination everyone knows.
However, can we say that is the situation with us in Nigeria? This justification, to start with, follows the current economic downturn in the country. Just last week, the National Bureau of Statistics revealed that no fewer than 1.5 million of Nigerians lost their jobs in the first quarter of 2016 alone, puting unemployment to 12.1 per cent up from 10.4 per cent in the last quarter in 2015. Inflation was put at 13.7% in April 2016, while Q1 GDP numbers went down to negative 0.36% from the 7 per cent neighbhourhood that the country has hung in the past couple of years. The country is on the brink of a recession.
How did we get here? The first explanation is that the previous government did not save when Nigeria made so much money from crude oil sales. That is in addition to endless allegations of corruption against it. But then, that government has been out of office for 12 months and the new government should have charted its own course. Not much has happened on that front.
Although the mono product nature of our economy and the fall in the price of crude oil are contributory to the situation of things, economic analysts have identified the sluggish take-off of the administration, the lack of clear economic direction, even lateness in the appointment of ministers, the controversies that surrounded the 2016 budget resulting in its last passage as well as the stringent economic measures adopted by the government as factors responsible for the present abysmal situation in Nigeria.
The recent increase in the price of petrol has further diminished the purchasing power of the Nigerian. Before it took over power, this government had been advised to deregulate the downstream oil and gas sector and free the economy of all the baggage that government control brings. The counsel was one of those handed down to the administration by the Transition Implementation Committee that it up for itself. But the President would delay this key decision until it became too late and a combination of deficient refinery capacity and scarce foreign exchange, also worsened by the control put in place by the administration made the decision difficult for Nigerians to bear. Now, the government says the situation will get worse before getting better like it was found taking the right judgment at the right time. The truth is that Buhari as former President Olusegun Obasanjo said recently is challenged on issues around the economy and he doesn’t seem to have the inclination to take counsel from those who know, hence we are where we are.
What is even more painful is that Nigerians from all walks of life advised on the need for the president to put his eyes on the economy alongside his passion for the fight against corruption but all such advice was declined, ridiculed or misunderstood to have been in support of corruption. One of those who suffered such injustice is Catholic Bishop of Sokoto Diocese, Dr. Mathew Hassan Kukah.
On the security front, the government has secured various levels of victory over the terrorist Boko Haram sect. There have been ceaseless routings of the insurgents, thousands of captives especially women have been rescued, while 14 local governments hitherto under the control of the terrorist group have been retrieved. However, over 3,000 people are said to have been killed in cold blood by Fulani herdsmen within the last 12 months. It is not abating and government does not seem to have a coordinated approach for solution.
Same can be said of the situation with the Niger Delta crisis, which is worsening with dire economic repercussions for the country. As condemnable as the actions of the Niger Delta Avengers, a militant group blowing up oil installations in the south south zone is, it would be impossible to excuse some faux pas committed by the president as having promoted a lack of confidence in his readiness to treat Nigerians as equal. One of such comments was the one in which he suggested that those who voted for him would get more attention from his government than those who did not vote for him. The president just needs to begin to see himself as the father of the nation and ensure national cohesion.
The government is proud of its success in the war against corruption. I understand efforts being made by President Buhari to recover loot stashed away across the world, one of which is the $234m that Swiss authorities are said to have promised to repatriate. I am also aware of the prosecution and media trials of a number of prominent Nigerians who are alleged to have soiled their hands. But all these efforts appear more like warring against corrupt people than fighting corruption.
As exciting as it is that a government is willing to put people in jail for dipping their hands into the national till, it is not by itself, a sustainable strategy. This is why there can be no trace of the achievements that the Buhari/Idiagbon military regime made in their fight against corruption.
It is noteworthy that the introduction of the Treasury Single Account and continuous evaluation of Federal Government payroll are systemic reforms that should check corruption, but the stance of the administration on the deregulation of the downstream sector of the petroleum industry as well its capital controls are breeding grounds for corruption.
The truth is that the deprivations in Nigeria are so wanton that it would take a saint, many of whom this planet does not harbour, for loopholes that command economic policies to pass without exploitation.
It is fallacious to imagine that Buhari’s ‘body language’ will suddenly beat Nigerians who have received the short end of the bargain from the country into sanctimony. The only restraint that I know is to de-incentivise corruption by putting up structures that make it difficult for people to steal while working towards improving their living conditions. The fight against corruption is more than recovering loot or sending people to jail, it is also about making stealing unattractive to the citizenry. I do not think this administration has achieved on this front.
On the very urgent need to reform the educational sector, not much has been achieved. In fact the mis-step of the administration started with the appointment of a minister who is no expert in education but is senior to an academic. This was followed by the irregular removal of governing boards of universities as well as 13 vice chancellors by the minister. The government plans to employ 500,000 graduates as teachers but one is forced to ask questions about the parameters for the selection of beneficiaries. More than that, the current state of the national economy may put this programme as well as the school feeding programme in jeopardy.
The government talks about the diversification of the economy with agriculture being a mainstay of the policy, but the state of agriculture in the country currently leaves much to be desired.
The same applies to works, housing and power, health and solid minerals. We hear of plans to change the tide of things but we really haven’t seen much change. Even then, the government doesn’t seem to be in a hurry. A couple of weeks back, Buhari told members of his party that they still had three years to perform. But this will be a fundamental miscalculation. With the way politics is played in Nigeria, this administration has less than two years to prove its worth to Nigeria and Buhari needs to instantly roll up his sleeves and get to work toward salvaging Nigeria from its troubles.
*Adedokun can be reached via Twitter@niranadedokun
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