A Nigerian war with Niger Republic could rank alongside America’s catastrophic evacuation from Afghanistan two years ago or Russia’s disastrous invasion of Ukraine last year for super power military humblings. It is a dubious distinction that Nigeria doesn’t need and can’t afford but there are certain similarities in the Niger crisis and the Afghan debacle.
The US knew it had to leave Afghanistan – Presidents Obama, Trump and Biden all knew it had to happen – but they wanted to keep the Baghram airbase which was a strategic military foothold in the region just like US bases in Niger!
Russia supported the Taliban against the U.S. precisely because they didn’t want the US military presence close enough to do them harm from Baghram base.
Iran supported the Taliban against the U.S. in hopes that they would reopen a river that ran downstream from Afghanistan just like Nigeria needs Niger to keep open a river running from there.
Pakistan and China supported the Taliban against the U.S. in hopes they would then curtail insurgents from their respective countries who operated from Afghanistan. And ISIS supported the Taliban just because!
The French have strategic interests in Niger like their other neocolonies – a pathological parasitism that belies all pretensions of post-colonial independence. France is a leech sucking the very lifeblood out of the African nations it continues to colonise in ways that would shock many Africans and certainly the rest of the world.
The US has been allied with the French since they sided with America against their age-long British rivals centuries ago.
The US had a complicated history with Haiti – the black island nation that revolted against France – partly because of historical affinity both being born of revolution against European colonisers but also because the U.S. didn’t want enslaved blacks in America to revolt. (Apparently revolution was only a good thing if it was white against white but not black against white.) Per Wikipedia, “the United States under President Jefferson (a Virginia slaveowner who only supported manumission of African-Americans from slavery on the condition of voluntary removal to Africa) withdrew diplomatic recognition from Toussaint’s autonomous (Haitian) government and worked to curry favours with the (French) government of Napoleon Bonaparte. Pro-slavery southerners in the United States aided in delaying the United States’ recognition of Haiti’s independence. The United States recognised the independence of Haiti, which was achieved in 1804, on July 12, 1862.”
In all probability, it was the French who brokered the US’ prime military real estate deal in Niger when other African countries were suspicious.
Sadly, America’s oldest ally has an awful rep in Africa and riding on it’s coattails guilts America by association. Recent coups in Francophone West Africa have been framed in populist anti-imperialist garb and the Americo-French pushback in Niger is seen in that prism.
Uranium is the most popular nuclear fuel and Niger is the seventh largest producer in the world generating electricity in France – but only 14% of Nigeriens have access to electricity with more than ¾ of the country without power supply.
Rather Niger relies on Nigeria, which lacks power itself, for 70% of its electricity under an agreement not to dam a river that runs from Niger into Nigeria.
Niger hasn’t paid Nigeria tens of millions of dollars in electricity over the years but Nigeria cut the power only after the coup in Niger.
Here comes the Russian connection. An erudite scholar and friend submits that, “Russia is dead set to deny Nigeria’s entrance into the gas market in Europe…and doing all it can to prevent the putschists from being toppled.
“The target is to make sure our Tran-Saharan Gas Pipeline never makes it across Niger to Algeria.
“Russia sees that pipeline as a mortal blow to the well-being of the Russian people in the future. Without dominating Europe gas market, Russia is as dead as the Soviet Union.
“It is going to engage the terrorist Wagner Group for this purpose.
“I still think the best way to solve the gordian knot is to engage in a highwire diplomatic ju-jitsu with the putschists. We can seize the initiatives from Russia, not by going to war but by the mere fact that per capita, Niger needs us more than it needs Russia. Let‘s leverage on this.”
And there it is – the coup plotters in Niger are kind of the “new Taliban” that diverse interests are courting for various agenda just like they did in Afghanistan. And ISIS is also here just because!
Nigeria unfortunately has a lot to lose in Niger given it’s long history of financing the country. A decade’s long money laundering asset forfeiture case in DC District Court includes this ancient nugget – On 5th July 1996, NSA Gwarzo collected from Nigeria’s Central Bank the sum of US $8.1 million and GB £5.2 million based on his request dated 14th June 1996, “to support five presidential aspirants in the Niger Republic general elections.”
The Nigerian government is constructing a 284-kilometre standard-gauge rail line with 12 stations from Kano in northern Nigeria to Maradi in landlocked Niger Republic funded through an external loan of $4.054bn. If this was built in Nigeria instead, it would crash the prices of foods and goods reducing inflation significantly but it will rather aid smuggling and terrorism instead.
Nigeria is building a refinery with crude supply via pipeline from Niger Republic’s oilfields in the Ténéré desert expected to cost billions of dollars (Niger only became oil-producing a dozen years ago compared to Nigeria’s decades.) The refinery is configured not to process Nigeria’s own Bonny light crude but specifically Niger’s crude.
Nigeria is building roads to Niger and purchased 10 Land Cruiser Jeeps to “assist the country in the transportation and movement of VIPs, high-ranking officials, top government functionaries and visitors scheduled for official visit to Niger at this time of its nascent democracy, with all its attendant consequences on their collective and individual security and safety of lives and property” costing billions.
But the big deal is the International Gas Pipeline from Nigeria passing through Niger, Algeria and Morocco to Europe costing $8bn and slicing Russia’s market share dominance.
Nigeria has worse electricity supply than Niger but is aiming to export gas to Europe!
Nigeria has more to lose economically than the US in Ukraine but less than France.
As my friend pointed out, this imbroglio requires high stakes diplomacy but I submit deal making as well.
•France will need to rescind its obnoxious neo-colonial stranglehold on Niger including control of its foreign reserves and currency and its colonial “debt-service” overhang;
•US and France need to develop a nuclear power plant providing electricity to Niger and Nigeria, thus ending their water/power deal;
•A new president for Niger who is not beholden to the French should be elected;
•The coup leaders should be exiled to Nigeria or other countries of their choosing with amnesty;
•The gas and oil pipelines should be completed as envisaged.
Dissident Uyghurs from China, Chechyans from Russia, Pakistanis and ISIS are part of the melting pot of Islamist militancy currently stewing in Talibani Afghanistan. The Taliban has not turned out quite as expected for China, Russia, Pakistan and Iran’s calculations post-takeover. Despite the loss of prized Bagrahm airbase, some analysts believe the current situation actually favours the US against its adversaries with miniature proxy wars without US boots on ground. This would pretty much be the model replicated in Niger if Nigeria and ECOWAS would put boots on ground for the US!
Niger can still be won back before Wagner and war walk in.
•Emmanuel Ogebe is a US-based lawyer and Nigeria international affairs expert with the U.S. Nigeria Law Group, Washington.
