By Pius Mordi
A peep into how future wars would be fought was given during the Vietnam War where the Vietcong squared up against a monstrous American military that had deployed up to 500,000 personnel at the peak of the battle between the communist north led by Ho Chi Minh and South Vietnam. With the array of heavily armed Americans, the Vietcong adopted a strategy that would grossly limit the effectiveness of the better armed Americans. Not encumbered by heavy weapons, they became an irregular army refusing to take the Americans head on, preferring to hit and run. They could emerge at will, harangue American forces, dissolve into the forests or simply melt into the civilian population.
That strategy has been perfected by today’s militants of all hue and cry. From the Taliban, ISIS, al Qaeda to Boko Haram and Niger Delta militants, today’s wars are no longer conventional. The new combatants are not garrison forces. They rarely hold territories, cannot be identified with a particular brand of uniforms and cannot be distinguished from the civilian population. They do not take on the military in a conventional battle but have perfected what the greatest of all sportsmen, Muhammad Ali, described as the hands cannot hit what the eyes cannot see.
Without requisite specialist training, an army battling such insurgents would lose the cooperation and sympathy of civilians and be seen as an occupation army. That was a bitter lesson the American servicemen, frustrated by the superior tactics of the Vietcong, learnt when at some point they indiscriminately bombed areas suspected of harbouring communist fighters even when they knew civilians were embedded therein.
In the wake of the resurgence of militancy in the Niger Delta with the birth of the Niger Delta Avengers (NDA), Abuja has kept faith with its vow to crush the new insurgency. In a war that is neither conventional nor guerilla-like coupled with a peculiar terrain, routine deployment of soldiers not schooled in the art of the new war with a group embedded within the ordinary people, the mission ought to have been clearly defined and the servicemen trained to meet the challenges.
Unfortunately, the military in Nigeria, and that includes the political leadership that is now largely militarised is stuck in the mentality bequeathed by President Olusegun Obasanjo whose policy of attrition as characterised by the scorched earth devastation of Odi. That timid and crude approach to dealing with security challenges has been the hallmark of military. The campaign against Boko Haram would have given the military top brass the opportunity to evolve new strategies in dealing insurgency with an eye on minimising collateral damage.
As on previous campaigns, the bid to neutralise the NDA is being undertaken with the impression that securing the flow of oil for export is only what matters to Abuja. Having drawn important lessons from the adventure in Vietnam, America and other militaries have established elite units adequately trained on the challenges of dealing with insurgency where the combatants cannot be distinguished from the civil population. This approach is imperative given that the safety of ordinary village folks is held paramount. But does the safety and lives of ordinary villagers in oil producing communities matter to Abuja beyond extracting the crude oil in the area? The global rule of engagement in dealing with insurgency within areas close to a civil population places greater premium on the protection of the ordinary folks.
The tenor and body language of the Presidency in the events leading to the deployment of troops to smoke out the NDA militants seem to have been to remove all threats to all installations at all costs. The siege laid on villages and communities without adequate intelligence reports smacks of indolence, timidity, indiscipline and lack of professionalism. There is absolutely no suggestion here that NDA or any other militant group is right in its course of action or that they should be spared from being smoked out. They must bear the consequences of their actions. However, that the military is unable to neutralise them does not make the ordinary folks liable or justify their being held hostage for the militants to be produced.
A visit to any of the communities in the oil producing areas will illustrate the fact that despite the creation of the Ministry of Niger Delta Affairs and the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC), the lot of the people has not improved. These are people constantly fighting the elements and an incredibly inclement and devastated environment to eke out a living. To be subjected to the indignity of being asked to account for the actions and whereabouts of renegades by security agents that were supposed to protect them from same militants is double jeopardy.
That there is a resurgence of militancy demonstrates that previous and current strategies, including the NDDC and the amnesty programme are ineffectual in resolving the Niger Delta Question. A recourse to that trodden path now will only ignite a cycle of militancy. And keeping the military to continue their timid approach will only label them an army of occupation and further alienate the people.
An air of arrogance in the demeanor of President Muhammad Buhari and his inner circle to the issue of restructuring the country is so crystal clear that it will only serve to breed greater discontent not just against the government but against the entity called Nigeria. The two-week ceasefire given by the military for negotiation will almost certainly resolve nothing. Its NDA today, tomorrow it will be the same issue coming under another name and the cycle continues.