The total revenue generated by Nigeria from crude oil and gas exports from January to September 2020 tumbled by $1.24bn, compared to the same period in 2019.
An analysis of data obtained from the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation on Monday showed that the country earned $2.32bn from oil and gas exports in the period under review, down from $3.56bn in the same period of 2019.
Amid the sharp drop in oil prices that was triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, total oil and gas revenue slumped to $193.05m in April last year from $361.18m in March, $282.32m in February and $626.79m in January.
It fell further to $133.16m in May but rose to $378.42m in June, according to the NNPC data.
The oil and gas export receipt later resumed its decline, dropping to $122.44m in July and $100.88m in August. It, however, rose to $122.49m in September.
The United States Energy Information Administration predicted that members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would earn about $323bn in net oil export revenues in 2020.
“If realised, this forecast revenue would be the lowest in 18 years. Lower crude oil prices and lower export volumes drive this expected decrease in export revenues,” the EIA said in its latest OPEC Revenues Fact Sheet.
It said the decline in revenues was based on forecasts of lower global demand for petroleum products because of the general economic slowdown associated with COVID-19 that had reduced demand for petroleum products and OPEC oil.
The EIA estimated that members of OPEC earned about $595bn in net oil export revenues (unadjusted for inflation) in 2019.
It said, “In 2019, OPEC net export revenues decreased by 17 per cent compared with the estimated 2018 net export revenues and were less than half the estimated record high of the more than $1.2tn earned in 2012.
“The estimated 2019 revenues fell because of lower crude oil prices and lower crude oil production levels, which were the result of an increase in crude oil production disruptions and voluntary curtailments of crude oil output among OPEC members.
Saudi Arabia accounted for the largest share of total OPEC earnings in 2019, with an estimated earnings of $202bn for Saudi Arabia, representing more than one-third of total OPEC oil revenues.
“On a per capita basis, OPEC net oil export earnings declined by 19 per cent in 2019 to $1,201, down from $1,476 in 2018 (unadjusted for inflation),” the EIA said.
The agency forecast that 2020 per capita net oil export revenues would fall to $638.
Nigeria has the lowest per capital net oil export revenue of $76 for the period of January to September 2020, compared to Angola’s $393, Algeria’s $253, Libya’s $128, Gabon’s $764, Equatorial Guinea’s $1,200, and Congo’s $468.
The EIA said, “The decrease in revenues could be detrimental to member countries’ fiscal budgets, which rely heavily on oil sales to import goods, fund social programmes, and support public services.
“The decline in expected net oil export revenue in 2020 is driven by continued voluntary curtailments and low crude oil prices.”
According to fact sheet, the EIA expects that OPEC revenues will increase slightly in 2021 to $397bn largely because of higher OPEC production as global demand recovers, production cuts under the OPEC+ agreement ease, and crude oil prices increase.
