A new report by Nextier, a non-governmental organization, has revealed that Nigeria recorded 20,472 deaths and injuries from 5,291 violent incidents between 2020 and 2024.
The 2025 Annual Violent Conflict Report, based on data from the Nextier Violent Conflicts Database, highlights terrorism, banditry, kidnappings, and communal clashes as major contributors to insecurity.
Speaking at a press conference in Abuja, Nextier Managing Partner, Dr. Ndubuisi Nwokolo, disclosed that in 2024 alone, Nigeria witnessed 43 terrorist attacks and 1,306 incidents of banditry. He explained that the report, titled “Mutations of Terror and Conflict,” analyzed conflict patterns and identified five external factors likely to influence Nigeria’s security in 2025:
- The ongoing war in Sudan.
- The expansion of terrorist groups across the Sahel.
- Nigeria’s growing ties with France, amid Sahel nations distancing themselves from the West.
- Elections in neighboring countries that could impact regional stability.
- Russia’s increasing influence in Africa.
Insecurity and Kidnapping Trends
The report warned that illegal mining in North-West Nigeria has fueled banditry by providing funds for arms, making the region increasingly lawless. Between June 2020 and December 2024, a total of 11,002 people were kidnapped, with the North-West being the worst affected.
Farmer-Herder Conflicts and Other Violent Incidents
The North Central and North-West regions experienced the most intense farmer-herder clashes, with 2,347 casualties recorded in 359 incidents over four years. In 2024 alone, 61 such incidents led to 467 casualties, with North Central accounting for 416 deaths (89.1% of the total).
Additionally, the report documented:
- 2,988 cult-related clashes leading to 695 deaths between 2020 and 2024.
- A peak in cult-related violence in 2022, with 224 casualties from 92 incidents.
- A steady decline in cult-related incidents from 2023 to 2024.
Recommendations and Future Conflict Predictions
Nextier urged the Nigerian government to strengthen both military operations (kinetic approach) and non-kinetic strategies, ensuring that increased defense spending translates to better security outcomes. The report identified key security threats for 2025, including:
- The rise of a new terrorist group, Lakurawa.
- The future of secessionist movements, which depends on how the government handles Nnamdi Kanu’s continued detention and its negotiations with Finland over Simon Ekpa’s extradition.
- The persistence of kidnappings, influenced by state-funded vigilantes, budget allocations to security, and the amount of cash in circulation.
- The farmer-herder conflict, which will be shaped by the effectiveness of the newly created Ministry of Livestock Development and the Presidential Committee on Livestock Reforms.
- Political tensions, particularly:
- Ethnic rivalries between the Igbo and Yoruba.
- The ongoing godfatherism crisis in Rivers State.
- Misinformation and hate speech.
- Preparations for the 2027 elections and upcoming off-cycle elections.
Call for Nnamdi Kanu’s Release
The report urged the Nigerian government to consider releasing IPOB leader Nnamdi Kanu as a strategy to separate Biafra agitators from criminal elements, thereby reducing political and security tensions in the country.
