Rising food prices pose risk for South Africa inflation

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JOHANNESBURG  – South Africa’s consumer is likely to trend steadily higher this year as food rise, putting on the central to increase interest rates this year, analysts say.

Predictions of rising food price pressures began in March after grain traders warned that South Africa could start buying the grain abroad because unfavourable weather had reduced the expected 2015 harvest.

The World Food Programme (WFP) weighed in on Monday with warnings of possible food shortages in southern Africa due to a severe drought in key maize producer South Africa, which accounts for more than 40 percent of regional output.

The region would likely have to supplement domestic output with increased imports, it said.

“The risks to the food trajectory, associated with the maize price increase, are firmly to the upside,” Investec economist Kamilla Kaplan said in a note. This was likely to be evident the half of the year, she added.

Food has a 14 percent weighting on South Africa’s consumer price index, and food came in at 5.9 percent year-on-year in March, outpacing the overall CPI rate of 4.0 percent.

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“That momentum will likely carry going into winter, so we’ll definitely start to see a push, especially given the drought affecting maize,” said Bart Stemmet, an economist at house NKC.

“It will probably go along with price pressures rising oil and rising , so all that is going to affect the food sector input costs to having to import maize overseas, especially given the weaker rand.”

The local currency has fallen more than 4 percent against the dollar this year, adding to a decline of about 10 percent in 2015, and the central has said it poses a risk to its 3-6 percent inflation target.