There will be a struggle for influence in the Niger Delta
Following the unexpected death of the then president, Umaru Yar’Adua, in May 2010, a number of powerful northern politicians in the PDP opposed Mr Jonathan succeeding the late leader, contending that it remained the turn of the north to rule, based on the pre-1999 election accord. Many northern politicians still insist that the presidency should revert to the north. It has been speculated that Rotimi Amaechi, a governor from the Niger Delta region who has been at loggerheads with Jonathan, is being groomed to run as a running mate to a northern presidential candidate, possibly the Jigawa state governor, Sule Lamido. Amaechi is the only southerner among the seven rebel PDP governors. The choice of a politician from the Niger Delta to contest against Mr Jonathan, who is also from the Delta, could be a deft move, but with potentially dangerous consequences in the volatile oil-producing region that has in the past been susceptible to election violence.
A longer-term threat
There is also a longer-term threat to democracy in Nigeria. An important reason behind Nigeria weathering previous political turmoil is the fact that many Nigerians can remember how much worse the situation was under military rule prior to 1999. However, with almost 50% of Nigerians now estimated to be under 15 years old, the collective memory of life under military dictatorship is eroding. Furthermore, memories of the brutal civil war of the late 1960s and early 1970s have also receded. Therefore, it seems likely that the population will become increasingly less tolerant of political in-fighting and incompetence. This should be good for democracy, but, as the experience in many Arab countries demonstrates, such a transition to a more accountable democracy is fraught with danger.
Jonathan told the US president, Barack Obama, on September 23rd that his administration would ensure the conduct of free and fair elections in 2015. He acknowledged that Nigeria has a history of controversial elections and assured that his government is working to build stronger democratic institutions. It is important for the future of democracy and economic growth in Nigeria that he succeeds and effective political reforms are made. However, such reforms are likely to take a back-seat amid the PDP’s squabbles, and so another tumultuous election period is in prospect.
