Dear Readers
The title of today’s epistle is derived from a significant panel discussion that took place during a book launch in Lagos last week (on Wednesday, May 8th, 2024). This event, presided over by former Head of State General Yakubu Gowon (PhD), was a gathering of the nation’s key figures, including governors, industry leaders, public analysts, top media practitioners, academics, and prominent members of civil society.
The book “Leading from the Streets” was reviewed during the event by Prof Eghosa Osaghae. It is a compilation of essays by Magnus Onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, development strategist, and former commissioner of the Delta State government. Onyibe offers a comprehensive exploration of various aspects of the Nigerian state and its trajectory.
The panel of discussion to dissect the topic of “Tinubnomics” was chaired by me, and discussing members were Ayo Obe, a legal practitioner and civil rights activist; Bala Zaka, an engineer and charted accountant; Sam Omatseye, Chairman of the Editorial Board of The Nation newspaper, and Dakuku Peterside, former NIMASA Director-General. As moderator of the panel, I forced discussants to spend some time on the topic of social media regulation, and though some of the panel members were not very pleased with the detour, we at least agreed that fake news was evil. That remedy was self-regulation by media organisations and invocation of existing laws by offended parties. Sam Omatseye and I cited, as a good example, the reaction of former Lagos State governor, Babatunde Raji Fashola, who sued those who posted fake news about him.
When we got into the issue of governance and the economy, the first salvo on the issue of Tinubnomics was shot by Bala Zaka, who posited that it is so far, so bad for Tinubnomics. He argued that nothing works because the policies were wrong in conception and implementation. His argument was based on the fact that the effects of the administration so far on people were debilitating; he raised the cost of living and juxtaposed it with incomes and cited the exodus of companies from the country and the shutting down of some operations. A country where a worker’s monthly salary cannot buy a bag of rice is in the wrong direction, he argued in many emotional and colourful words. He also listed the other indexes, such as the rise in the cost of petrol, the value of the naira to the US dollar, etc. For him, Tinubnomics was a failure.
The teacher in me thought it would be good to review and introduce the term Tinubnomics to the audience before we delve into judging it. I defined Tinubnomics as a shorthand for describing the political and economic philosophy, policies and activities of the Tinubu administration. Using the name of the head of the administration as a prefix to “economics” is primarily an Americanism that allows analysts to succinctly catalogue the distinctive features of an era and an administration and to contrast it with other administrations and eras. The policies of the Barack Obama administration, for example, were dubbed “Obamanomics” and that of Roland Reagan “Reaganomics”.
In the case of Barack Obama, the main features of his Obamanomics included tax increases on higher-income taxpayers. Such increases were conceived and presented as a means to fund social initiatives such as health care reform, a reduction in the federal government deficit, and a declared attempt to reduce income inequality.
Roland Reagan’s political-economic policies and programme, dubbed Reaganomics, were mostly about increasing defence spending, balancing the federal budget and slowing the growth of government spending, tax reduction (income tax and capital gains tax), deregulation, and attempts to curb inflation through monetary policies aimed at reducing the money supply.
In the case of Bola Ahmed Tinubu, my take is that so far, in the first year of the administration, what we can describe as Tinubnomics is a mixture of ordinarily unpopular hitherto discussed but never fully implemented economic intervention aimed at reducing government spending and increasing government revenue (by reducing subsidies, raising tariffs and levies), liberalisation of the foreign exchange market, devaluation of the naira and introduction of direct cash and kind transfers (palliatives) to the most vulnerable members of the society as well as investments in massive public infrastructure.
Sam Omatseye, a man who knows Tinubu well, provided context for our reflection by insisting that to comprehend Tinubnomics, we must first understand the man Tinubu, whom he described as an accountant with a laissez-faire economic outlook. It is safe to deduce that the emphasis on the “accountant” bit is to remind us that Tinubnomics is also about balancing the books.
Regarding the implementation of Tinubnomics, Dakuku Peterside rightly pointed out the need to improve the timing and thoroughness of plans and policies. Some of the policies introduced simultaneously could have been better timed. There was no need, for example, to adopt the current forex policy and remove the fuel subsidy simultaneously. I must confess here that I remain unconvinced about the need to remove the fuel subsidy.
In all, it must be said that Tinubnomics is a work in progress and that in just one year, to the mandate of four years, we are in just 25% of the game. However, it must also be said that one year of Tinubnomics at this stage is challenging for most in the country; the sacrifice and tightening of the belt required by families and businesses are a lot. The words of Ayo Obe come as golden here when she reminded everyone that it is essential for a government and leadership that wants people to sacrifice to be seen as sacrificing at least like if not more than, others.
As we move into the second quarter of Tinubnomics, an excellent place to start for those managing the country’s affairs is to read Magnus Onyibe‘s “Leading from the Streets.” The book contains chronicles and commentary on socioeconomic and political developments that have led us to where we are today, and the insights provided in it can be nuggets of wisdom for those who want to improve.
Join me on Twitter @anthonykila to share your insights and continue these conversations.
•Anthony Kila is an Institute Director at CIAPS. www.ciaps.org
