We have continued with our habit of “analyzing” and, through that “analysis,” legitimizing electoral brigandage.
I’m now seeing people on my Facebook timeline “analyzing” why the PDP lost in Bayelsa, how the APC candidate was beloved, how the PDP candidate was imposed, how former president Jonathan surreptitiously backed the APC candidate, etc.
But on Saturday, before INEC pronounced the results and before it became clear that the official count favored the APC, we were all discussing the unprecedented violence, rigging, voter disenfranchisement, the questionable role of security agencies and INEC officials, and the massive manipulation that characterized the election.
That was the predominant narrative of the election on Saturday and part of Sunday. What happened between then and today to change the narrative from the debacle that was widely audio-visually documented to a coyly legitimizing narrative of “the PDP messed up” and “the APC played smart politics”?
In Kogi, we now have “analyses” of how Yahaha Bello was able to “win” despite owing salaries and performing woefully and how the PDP “lost” a winnable election. The premise of these “analyses” pretends that there was a credible election.
But on election day and part of yesterday, the narrative was totally different. The conversation was overwhelmingly about the well-documented violence, thuggery, shootings, ballot-snatching, and the complicity of security and electoral officials.
The conversation was about the N10 billion election slush fund released by Mr. Integrity to Governor Bello on the eve of the election and how that essentially funded the massive vote-buying, ballot-snatching, and intimidation campaigns of Governor Bello.
The conversation on Saturday and part of Sunday was about the fact that in Okene Local Government, Governor Bello is recorded as having scored 112,000 votes (90 percent of registered voters) to the PDP’s less than 150!
The footnote to that narrative was how, in one local government in Okunland, Bello inexplicably scored a vote total that nearly equalled the number of accredited voters, and yet somehow INEC still allocated 8,000 votes to the PDP candidate!
On Saturday, the verdict seemed unanimous and unequivocal: the two gubernatorial elections were a complete disaster. On my Premium Times WhatsApp group, the discussion among intellectuals, journalists, and civil society groups in that ecosystem was damning: these were no elections and could not be conferred with any credibility or legitimacy.
In fact, the umbrella body of Nigerian civil society organizations called for the cancellation of the two elections.
Instead of persisting with this clear, substantive narrative of electoral sham and correctly advancing it to underscore the further deterioration of our already broken electoral system, some of us have shockingly, quickly moved on to a narrative that makes the “victories” of the APC in both elections plausible, thereby subtly, if unwittingly, legitimizing what we all described as as gun-backed heists less than 72 hours ago.
This tendency seems to be in our character. We are too quick to move on, and to normalize and thus regularize anomalies and perfidies. There is a pattern and a history to this behavior on our part.
We did it before when, in spite of the internationally condemned theft of the Osun gubernatorial election, we “analyzed” how Adeleke, the PDP candidate, might have “lost” and how Tinubu’s cousin, Oyetola, the APC candidate might have “won.” In other words, we privileged speculation on the might-have-beens and other counterfactuals of the election over the clear, tangible facts of electoral injustice staring us in the face. Because of this narrative acceptance of the Osun travesty, when the appeals and supreme courts upheld the election’s dubious outcome, we yawned and moved on.
We did the same when Gandollar, with the help of security forces and compromised INEC officials, stole the Kano gubernatorial election from Abba, the PDP candidate. Despite the unanimity of our condemnation of the brazen electoral larceny, a few days after the tragic event, a counter-narrative of how Gandollar may have “won” and how Abba may have “lost” began to trickle out, gradually helping to normalize and legitimize the electoral robbery and Gandollar’s “re-election.”
We also did it in the immediate aftermath of the 2019 presidential election. We moved on quickly from a near-universal commentary on a heavily manipulated election marked by violent disfranchisement, manufactured numbers, and a predetermined outcome that gave Mr. Atiku, the PDP candidate, no chance. We moved on to a new, sneaky rhetoric of what Atiku and the PDP did wrong, what was wrong with Atiku, how Atiku was a bad candidate that doomed the PDP, how Buhari’s loyal following remained intact in the North, how Buhari, despite his record (or lack of it), found a way to “win,” etc.
This narrative, promoted on social media and in the traditional press, helped normalize Buhari’s “victory” and Atiku’s “loss.” It rendered the election’s crooked outcome plausible and acceptable. In fact some people were urging Atiku to accept “defeat” and move on, that it was the will of God, that if Nigerians voted for Buhari then he deserved the “victory” and they his presidency. Some of the people who were saying this had a few days earlier declared that Buhari had lost the election soundly and had stolen his way back to power. But now, they were creating room for the plausibility of his “victory.”
That is who we are. We move on too quickly from injustice; we’re too accepting of cheating and manipulation because we tend to value a stable, predictable, but illegitimate status quo more than we do fighting for a legitimate political/electoral outcome and future. The politicians now know this and are counting on it.
The message we are sending to the politicians is clear: win the election at all costs, and by any means. Nothing will happen. After two days, people will move on with their lives and recognize your de facto, if not de jure, governorship/presidency.
And, as a bonus, the commentariat, journalists, and some intellectuals will even find specious analytical alibis and plausibilities for your “victory” and your opponent’s “loss.”
Source: Facebook
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