By Itodo Daniel SuleThere are indications that Taraba State acting governor, Alhaji Garba Umar, who has been piloting the affairs of the state since Governor Danbaba Suntai was involved in a plane crash in October 2012 will run in 2015. Our correspondent takes a look at factors that will work for and against him. As the tenure of Governor Suntai gradually winds up, Alhaji Garba Umar, who has held forte in acting capacity is now strategising on how to return to the Government House in 2015 as substantive governor of Taraba State. Though Umar is yet to officially declare for the governorship, his body language has since shown that he is very much interested in running for the number one seat in the state. His campaign posters sometime ago appeared in different parts of the state especially within Jalingo, the state capital; while campaign jingles drumming support for him have continued to rend the air in Jalingo. Recently, an aide to the acting governor in an interview disclosed that Umar is still taking his time to plan well before he hits the ground running, expressing hope that full scale action will commence sometime in October this year. But political pundits said the journey for the Taraba acting governor to the Government House come May 29, 2015 may not be a smooth ride as there are obstacles for him to surmount even though there are some factors that will help his ambition. The power of incumbency has been one of the factors that has helped a good number of governors retain their seats and it is hoped that the same factor could work in favour of the acting governor as he has come to assume full control of the state machinery. As acting governor, Umar controls the state purse and security apparatus giving him an edge over others who will have to rely on their own personal efforts. Another factor Umar’s proponents believe would work for him in 2015 is his grassroots penetration and followership as he is expected to marshal out the retinues of his political appointees from across the 16 local government areas of the state to reach out to the people. Umar has over 40 special advisers and special assistants who observers believe are going to serve as foot soldiers in reaching to the nooks and crannies of the state to garner support for him come 2015. Though critics say some of the political appointees are not popular enough to deliver their various local government areas to him, his political adviser, Senator Ibrahim Goje, waved that aside insisting they are equal to the task. “He has followership in all the local government areas. We his advisers, commissioners and political appointees are equal to the task. As of now, we have a programme of action which we are waiting for the acting governor to come and endorse. Once he endorses it, you will see action”, Goje said. Senator Goje also revealed that plans are underway to come up with a formidable campaign team that will ensure the acting governor breasts the tape in the 2015 race. Providence is yet another key factor many believe would work in favor of Umar given the scenario that transpired in the case of President Goodluck Jonathan; when he rose from being the deputy governor of Bayelsa State to the substantive governor of the state and later from being vice president, to acting president and later president. The circumstances that brought Umar to become deputy governor of Taraba State and later an acting governor within the space of about one month has made his supporters strongly believe that providence could be at work for him. But there are factors which keen observers still believe could work against the acting governor’s gubernatorial ambition come 2015. One of such factors that would likely work against the acting governor according to analysts is his seeming lack of grip of the PDP structure in the state. The Victor Bala Kona led PDP state executives was put in place by Governor Suntai before his unfortunate plane crash and has remained more sympathetic and loyal to the cause of Suntai than that of the acting governor.[eap_ad_2] It was learnt that the state party chairman has vowed not to recognize the acting governor and that remains a big obstacle for Umar to surmount. Umar, who was brought into power as deputy governor by Suntai after the impeachment of the then deputy governor, Sani Danladi Abubakar, and later became acting governor, is yet to be seen as exerting strong control on the state party structure at the moment. It therefore implies that the acting governor would have to work hard towards winning the PDP state executives to his side so as to smoothen his ride ahead of 2015. Some persons had advocated that Umar would have since orchestrated the outright sack of the PDP executives and ensure new crop of executives sympathetic to his cause are put in place but Umar in his own style of politics seem not to have considered that option. Analysts believe that those who had wanted to ride on the ‘wings’ of Suntai to power might want to frustrate him from getting the PDP ticket in the state if nothing is done to consolidate his hold on the party. Another thing is that some people within the party executives are said to have viewed Umar as a new entrant who was ‘brought’ into the PDP fold by Governor Suntai, and as such are reluctant to give him the needed support and recognition as the party leader. To such people, Umar has not worked enough for the party and perhaps see him as coming to get the PDP ticket on a platter of gold. Zoning is another likely factor that might stand in the way of Taraba acting Governor if that factor is anything to go by. There are three zones in Taraba State namely, North, Central and Southern zones. Taraba North produced former Governor Jolly Nyame who governed the state for two terms, between 1999 and 2007. Taraba Central produced Governor Suntai who has been at the helm of affairs of the state since 2007 and would be completing his second term by 2015. Taraba Southern zone is yet to produce a governor since the inception of democratic dispensation in 1999, hence their clamour for power shift. Before the crash in October 2012, Governor Suntai was reportedly said to have assured the people of Southern zone that he would ‘transfer’ power to the zone upon completion of his second term in 2015. Although, the plane crash seems to have affected that arrangement to some extent but stakeholders from that zone are still strategising on how the power will shift to their zone this time around. Umar himself is from the northern zone of the state and might have some serious hurdle to tackle should there be any move by the party to give the ticket to a candidate from the Southern zone. Of equal concern is the fact that Senator Aisha Jummai Alhassan who hails from Taraba North Senatorial District (the same zone as Umar), is equally warming up to run for the governorship on the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC) come 2015. Senator Alhassan would likely be another factor that Umar may have to contend with especially given the fact that both of them hail from the same northern zone. Special assistant to Umar on media and publicity, Aaron Artimas however said there is no challenge about that, expressing confidence that Taraba has been a PDP state and would continue to be so. Although, there may be couple of challenges dogging the way of acting governor Garba Umar in his gubernatorial ambition but his enthusiasts are very optimistic that he will ‘spring surprises’ in 2015.(Daily Trust)[eap_ad_3]
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