By Caroline Chen and Brendan Greeley
The Ebola outbreak in West Africa could spread to hundreds of thousands more people by the end of January, according to an estimate under development by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that puts one worst-case scenario at 550,000 or more infections.
The report, scheduled to be released next week, was described by two people familiar with its contents, who asked to remain anonymous because it isn’t yet public.
The projection, which vastly outstrips previous estimates, is under review by researchers and may change. It assumes no additional aid or intervention by governments and relief agencies, which are mobilizing to contain the Ebola outbreak before it spirals further out of control in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea.
“CDC is working on a dynamic modeling tool that allows for recalculations of projected Ebola cases over time,” said Barbara Reynolds, a spokeswoman for the agency, in an e-mail. “CDC expects to release this interactive tool and a description of its use soon.”
The World Health Organization said last month that the outbreak could reach 20,000 cases before being brought under control. That estimate is meant to help assess international relief needs, such as how many hospital beds to build and the amount of medical supplies needed. The U.S. is currently adding personnel and money to the effort.
Since the start of the outbreak, the virus has infected 5,357 people, killing 2,630, according to a Sept. 18 WHO report. The disease has spread through five West African countries, accelerating in cities, including Monrovia, the capital of Liberia.
UN Mission
The United Nations yesterday announced the creation of a special emergency mission to respond to the crisis, saying the effort needs to increase greatly.
“This is a disease outbreak that is advancing in an exponential fashion,” said David Nabarro, named special envoy to West Africa yesterday by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon. “I estimate that to get ahead of outbreak, the level of response needs to be about 20 times greater than it is at the moment.”
Predictive models have varied as researchers struggle to estimate an outbreak on a size and scale never seen before with Ebola.
Worst Case
A separate worst-case scenario modeled last month by researchers at the University of Tokyo and Arizona State University predicted there would be as many as 277,124 new cases by the year’s end.
That was the high end of their estimate, though the researchers warned that “uncontrolled cross-border transmission could fuel a major epidemic to take off in new geographical areas.”
Columbia University researchers predicted 18,755 cases by Oct. 26 if the situation didn’t change, and 49,129 if intervention and containment efforts degraded.
“Our understanding of Ebola transmission dynamics is incomplete and data on the present outbreak are limited,” the researchers said.
The U.S. is intensifying its response to the outbreak, adding personnel to the region after the UN requested that the U.S. increase its role. The military will help ship supplies, including medical equipment, sanitation kits and body bags to the region. About 3,000 troops will handle distribution from a staging base in Senegal, where there’s no current outbreak. The U.S. also will help build as many as 20 100-bed treatment centers and train about 500 health-care providers in the region.
More Money
Curbing the outbreak will require investments of $988 million over the next six months, according to an overview of needs and requirements published by the UN. About 30 percent of what’s needed has come in so far, Nabarro said earlier this week at a briefing in Geneva. [eap_ad_1] There is no cure for Ebola, which is spread by contact with the blood and bodily fluids of those infected. The disease normally is treated by keeping patients hydrated, replacing lost blood and using antibiotics to fight infections. The hope is that a patient’s immune system will fight off the aggressive attack of the virus.
Several companies and government health authorities are testing experimental treatments and vaccines against the disease.
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