By Femi Adesina
The seeming advantage that the All Progressives Congress (APC) had in Adamawa State was wiped out in July when Governor Murtala Nyako got impeached by the state House of Assembly. Nyako was one of the five governors who had decamped last year from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), thus altering the political configuration of the country significantly.
The migration of the governors into the APC created a scenario in which you almost had balance of forces (and possibly balance of terror) in the country. The states were almost evenly divided among the two major parties, and it had serious implications for the 2015 presidential race. It meant power could swing in any direction at the centre, since in Nigeria, incumbency really means access to official money, and ability to manipulate, using state apparatus. But from June, things began to go downhill for the APC. In a blitzkrieg, PDP won the gubernatorial election in Ekiti, thus reducing states controlled by the opposition by one. In July, Adamawa was lost too, through Nyako’s impeachment. It was a terrible season for the fast rising APC. And in August, the governorship election in Osun was some kind of do or die. All sides threw everything into the race, including charms and cudgels, and APC triumphed at the end of the day. Two goals to PDP (Ekiti and Adamawa), while APC had one (Osun).
As the country gets set for governorship by-election in Adamawa to determine who completes Nyako’s term, it is another battle to the wire. After impeaching Nyako, PDP said it merely reclaimed a state which had always belonged to it since 1999, but which APC got through the back door. The latter said PDP made a foray into its territory by scaling the fence, thus turning itself into a thief and robber. Now, October 11 will determine who truly owns Adamawa.
The race is more than just a contest for governorship. Far more than that. Adamawa may well foreshadow what happens next year, when the country holds general elections. It will be a pointer to the fortune that awaits the two major parties, both in the states, and at the centre. It will also indicate what happens to some major political actors, particularly President Goodluck Jonathan, and former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar.
Let’s start with what victory or failure in Adamawa means for the APC. For now, the party appears depleted and incohesive in the state. All the bigwigs defected when Nyako was playing a politics of exclusion, politics of winner takes all. Today, you have not heard of many formidable names aspiring for governorship on the platform of the party. Some people say Nyako’s defection last year, rather than being a blessing, was actually a kiss of death. It was like the death knell of APC. Rather than the party getting stronger, it waxed weaker and weaker.
Why must APC win Adamawa? Many reasons, but the most important being the Atiku factor. The former Vice President wants to make a bid for the presidential ticket of his party. And because he hails from Adamawa, the October 11 election is his litmus test. How do you become a party’s presidential flag bearer, when you can’t even bring your own state into the kitty? APC and Atiku seem disadvantaged in the race for now, but Atiku must pull out something from the fireman’s bag of tricks, if he wants to be taken serious. But where are the aspirants, somebody may ask. Well, Atiku must find them. Beg, borrow or steal, as the saying goes. Even if it means encroaching into the star-studded PDP, Atiku must find a candidate who will win Adamawa for his party, or kiss his presidential dream goodbye. Luckily, the former Number 2 man is credited to be a wily, resourceful politician, a master of the game. Let’s see how he pulls a rabbit from a hat. But he must do it. [eap_ad_1] The APC needs Adamawa like anything, to shore up confidence that it is in the presidential race for real. Its presidential candidate in 2011, Nuhu Riibadu, an Adamawa man, has defected to the PDP, and is now seeking the governorship ticket. It is a blow to the solar plexus, and what better way to show all the decampees than for APC to win Adamawa? This is a battle not to lose.
