Osun guber poll: Opinion poll says Aregbesola is in clear lead

-73% of voters chose Aregbesola

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-Omisore behind by 54 points

-Confidence in INEC drops by 10 points

With less than two weeks to the Osun governorship elections, the latest survey conducted by the reputable firm of TNS-RMS (a member of Gallup International) has confirmed the domination of the Osun political landscape by the All Progressives Congress (APC) on all critical indicators.

“The APC continues to dominate the political landscape in Osun State judging by its performance on all key indicators evaluated: it scored highest and also increased in rating on first mention, sympathy, and voting intention,” the research firm said in its final report.

According to the study, the incumbent governor, Rauf Aregbesola, is the candidate of choice by Osun voters with a 73% lead over other candidates. This is a clear indication that the choice of Osun voters in the next governorship race is Governor Rauf Aregebsola.  Meanwhile, Senator Iyiola Omisore of the PDP comes a far distant second, polling 19% representing a 2% decline from the earlier survey.

“The incumbent (Governor Rauf Aregbesola) remains (the) main voting choice. Voting choice for Senator Omisore declined by 2% and seem not to pose a threat to the incumbent’s chances of re-election as he remains firmly ahead of the race,” TSN-RMS said in its report.


The two phased survey was conducted over a period that stretched from June 2014 into the third week of July 2014.

“Not only is APC currently the most preferred party in Osun State, it has largely retained this goodwill from way back in the past. It was the party that most people claimed to have voted for in the last election and it is still the party with the highest chances of winning the election again. More importantly, the gap by which it outperforms opposition continues to widen and more convincing in the current survey,” the report added.

The APC also rates very high in the survey as its top-of-mind and awareness increased from 75% to 78% over the two polls, followed by a very far distance by the PDP with 18%, a drop of 3% from 21% in the first study. The Labour Party maintains third rank with a negligible 1%. Furthermore, electorate choice for APC is now 70% – boosted by 1% increment. 19% say they would vote for the PDP, another 3% drop. Electorate choice for Labour Party remains 1%.

The report goes further to say, “While Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola is more known than his party, Senator Iyiola Omisore (PDP’s candidate) is less known than his party. Top-of-mind awareness of Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola increased to 85% (from 79%), affinity increased from 72% to 74% and chances of being re-elected increased from 71% to 73%.”

Conversely, it is a tale of decline for the man in second place, Senator Omisore. For top-of-mind awareness, the PDP candidate toppled to 13% (from 19%), affinity fell to 19% (from 21%) and chances of being elected declined to 19% (from 21%).

While the affinity of Osun electorate towards the APC increased by 4%, PDP failed to maintain its connection to the people. The favourable perception of Osun voters towards the All Progressive’s Congress, APC stood at 83 per cent while on 17 per cent viewed APC as unfavourable.

According to the polls, 98% of the electorates in Osun State have said they would participate in the August 9th gubernatorial election. This indicates that the people are prepared for all eventualities in election.

The survey also revealed the strength of the candidates and their parties in the local government areas across the state; “Repeat of APC high chance to win in all the LGAs seem to play out again in the next election, APC is poised to repeat this feat except in Ife Central and Ife East; the PDP seemed well positioned to win these two LGAs. The Labour Party’s weakness is imminent across all the LGAs.

“The incumbent’s chances of being reelected remain same across the LGAs except in Ife Central and Ife East. The incumbent’s chances of re-election remain high and leads his closest rival by a good margin of 54%-an increment of 4% over last survey.”

The voters’ confidence in Attahiru Jega-led Independent National Election Commission (INEC) took a 10% hit, dropping to 57% to 67%.

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